Friday, October 01, 2004

Kerry Takes a Step Forward

The general consensus is that John Kerry won last nights debate by a good margin. A quick snapshot poll done by Gallup (which uses more Republican voters) found that Kerry won the debate 53% to 37%.

Naturally as the country has mostly divided at this point and has already picked their candidate, George Bush held his base and Kerry held his and probably picked up some independents. I consider Zogby polling to be the most accurate and their polling has been saying that the election is Kerry's to lose.

Consider this from Zogby, "...there are only a small number – perhaps only 6 million voters nationwide – who are genuinely undecided. From there we see a startling statistic: only 16% to 20% of undecided voters feel that the President deserves to be re-elected. Forty-percent of this relatively small group feel that it is time for someone new. They seem to have their minds made up about the President and have been given no reason to vote for Mr. Kerry. What is most important to this group? They agree with Mr. Bush on values, leadership, the war on terror, and likeability. They prefer Mr. Kerry on the economy, health care, the war, and education."

I think last nights debate gave Kerry an edge over the president on leadership, likeability and the war on terror to this small number of independents. Kerry gave these voters a reason to vote for him.

John Zogby adds this, "The pressure is really on Mr. Kerry to give a strong performance in both the debates and in the remaining five weeks of this campaign. If he is the John Kerry who defeated popular Governor Bill Weld in the Senate race of 2000 and the one who came from dismally low numbers in 2003 to win the primaries in 2004, he will win this race."

I would have to believe Kerry gave a strong performance in debate number one, so he has stepped a few feet forward. He still has two more debates and the final weeks to go, but I have to say that Kerry appears to be on the rise.



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