Wednesday, November 03, 2004

Election Math

As I sit at 430am in the morning the day after, the presidential race has yet to be called. At this point CNN has the numbers at Bush 254, Kerry 242. NBC has it Bush 249, Kerry 211. FOX totals Bush 269, Kerry 242. CBS calls it Bush 254, Kerry 242. ABC stands at Bush 254 Kerry 225.

It certainly appears that the networks were more nervous about making a difinitive call without solid numbers to back them up. But it looks like the Florida 2000, will be Ohio. It seems Ohio has plenty of provisional and overseas ballots still to count and beyond that the state didn't eliminate punch card ballots before the election as required by the Help America Voting Act (HAVA). At four in the morning only FOX has decided to include the Ohio electorial college votes in their total.

Bush could still win without Ohio by picking up enough state electorial college votes without Ohio at this point. Kerry must have Ohio to win. Ohio has stated that it may take 12 days to count all the votes due to the overseas ballots.

The late states at this hour with tight numbers and depending on the TV network are Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Ohio, and my home state Michigan. It is still possible for a tie at 269-269 but Kerry would need Ohio which probably won't be known for a number of days.

Neither candidate has declared victory or given a concession speech and are not likely to until the dust settles in the morning. Although the rumors are that Bush will declare victory and that would put Kerry in the position of desperately hoping for Ohio to turn in his direction.

The popular vote at this point is 51% for Bush and 48% for Kerry. So if Ohio does end up in Kerry's column than it would be a reversal of the 2000 election when Gore had the higher popular vote total but lost the electorial vote.

So here we are with another election with the math unfinished.


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